The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and Week 1 gives us a full slate of opportunities to put some money behind the teams we have been watching throughout the offseason. Rather than trying to manufacture action on every game, we’re narrowing the board down to three wagers where we believe the current point spread gives us a reasonable edge.
Our Week 1 picks for NFL betting include two favorites we believe can create separation and one home underdog to catch a field goal in a divisional matchup. The lines below were available at Bovada when we made our selections and remain subject to movement before kickoff.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-110) Over New England Patriots
Our first play comes in the Wednesday night opener, where Seattle is laying 3.5 points at home against New England in this Super Bowl rematch. Bovada currently has both sides of the spread priced at -110.
This is essentially an immediate Super Bowl rematch. Seattle beat New England 29-13 in February after both teams finished the regular season 14-3, and the Seahawks also allowed just 292 points during the 2025 season.
We normally hesitate before laying more than a field goal against a team as good as New England, but Seattle gets the rematch at Lumen Field and already demonstrated that it can control this matchup. The Patriots should make this one considerably more competitive than the Super Bowl, but we’re comfortable asking Seattle to win by four.
Our Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams -4 (-110) Over San Francisco 49ers
The Rams and 49ers head to Melbourne for a neutral-site NFC West matchup, with Los Angeles currently favored by four points at -110. Both clubs went 12-5 last season, but the Rams had the significantly more productive offense, scoring 518 points compared with San Francisco’s 437.
Los Angeles also won the most recent meeting between these teams 42-26 after San Francisco took the first matchup 26-23. That split tells us not to overreact to one result, but the Rams’ offensive ceiling makes four points a number we’re willing to lay.
The unusual trip to Australia removes the Rams’ normal home-field advantage, but it also gives us a relatively modest spread for a team that consistently produced more offense last season.
Our Pick: Los Angeles Rams -4 (-110)
New York Giants +3 (-115) Over Dallas Cowboys
Our third wager is the one underdog we’re willing to back. Dallas enters Sunday Night Football as a three-point road favorite over New York, with the Giants currently priced at -115 to take the points.
New York finished only 4-13 last season, so this isn’t a play based on the overall record. We’re looking more closely at the matchup. The Giants beat Dallas 34-17 at MetLife Stadium in the final meeting last season, while the Cowboys finished the year just 7-9-1 and lost four of their final five games.
Getting a full field goal at home in a divisional rivalry is enough for us to place our NFL bets on the points rather than asking New York to win outright.
Our Pick: New York Giants +3 (-115)
Week 1 always carries more uncertainty than later portions of the NFL schedule, so we’re keeping our card relatively small. Seattle -3.5, Los Angeles -4, and New York +3 give us three different situations without forcing action across the entire opening-week board.