Comparing The AP Top 25 Rankings With The Current CFP Futures

In anticipation of the first College Football Playoffs rankings that will be issued by the CFP Selection Committee on Tuesday, October 31st, we’ve decided to compare the current AP Top 25 poll with today’s futures odds being offered at legal NCAAF betting sites.

The top seven teams in the rankings and the CFP futures are identical, but the two lists begin a series of disagreements after that. The Georgia Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines hold the top two spots in both lists and have sizable leads on the remainder of the pack.

At the 8 and 9 spots, the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans flip-flop. The two Pac-12 juggernauts will face each other on November 11th, and it will definitely be a matchup of top ten teams should both programs remain unbeaten at that time.

NCAAF AP Top 25 Rankings For 10/2/2023 Current CFP Championship Futures
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Texas
  4. Ohio State
  5. Florida State
  6. Penn State
  7. Washington
  8. Oregon
  9. USC
  10. Notre Dame
  11. Alabama
  12. Oklahoma
  13. Washington State
  14. North Carolina
  15. Oregon State
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Miami
  18. Utah
  19. Duke
  20. Kentucky
  21. Missouri
  22. Tennessee
  23. LSU
  24. Fresno State
  25. Louisville
  1. Georgia +300
  2. Michigan +400
  3. Texas +750
  4. Ohio State +950
  5. Florida State +950
  6. Penn State +1200
  7. Washington +1200
  8. USC +1600
  9. Oregon +1600
  10. Alabama +2000
  11. Oklahoma +2500
  12. Notre Dame +4500
  13. Miami +6600
  14. Texas A&M +12500
  15. Washington State +12500
  16. Utah +15000
  17. Tennessee +15000
  18. LSU +15000
  19. North Carolina +15000
  20. Duke +15000
  21. Ole Miss +20000
  22. Kentucky +20000
  23. Missouri +20000
  24. Wisconsin +20000
  25. Louisville +20000

Upon reaching tenth place, we enter the realm of teams that have a loss. Both the Alabama Crimson Tide and Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lost a game to a top 5 program. Alabama’s loss to the Texas Longhorns appears much more respectable at this point, and the Irish have improved their standings after beating a tougher-than-usual Duke Blue Devils team last Saturday.

Both ND and Alabama retain an outside shot at reaching the College Football Playoffs should they finish the season without losing another game.

The University of Miami Hurricanes have surprised critics this year and have been rewarded for their 4-0 record with a 17th overall ranking. The odds for betting on the CFP Champions place them four spots higher at 13.

The biggest game on the remaining schedule for the Hurricanes is a November 11th contest against the number 5 FSU Seminoles, their cross-state rival. If Miami can beat the Noles at Doak Campbell Stadium, they’ll likely replace them in the CFP futures and in the rankings as the favorite to win the ACC.

Both the Oregon State Beavers and the Fresno State Bulldogs are featured in the AP Top 25 but are not included in the NCAAF futures.

The FSU Bulldogs are 5-0 and 1-0 in the Mountain West Conference standings, with no remaining ranked teams to play this year. Even if they finish undefeated, their strength of schedule would place them behind most one-loss teams from Power Five conferences.

The OSU Beavers are 4-1 and followed up their loss to the 13th-ranked Washington State Cougars by beating the Utah Utes. Oregon State is still alive in the Pac-12 championship hunt and has plenty of ranked opponents remaining to prove their worth to the CFP Selection Committee.

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